Disconnection between earnings growth and share price development

• Underlying companies in the portfolio once again show strong earnings growth in 2021
• Concern about the potential impact of inflation and the continued accomodative Central Bank policies
• ‘Pricing power’ remains an important selecrion criterion for Juno

The Hague – January 31, 2022 – Juno looks back with satisfaction on the performance of the companies in the Juno portfolio over the past year. The companies in which Juno invests have seen their earnings increase on average by more than 15% in 2021. Earnings expectations for 2022 mean that the managers look ahead to this year and the longer term with confidence. In contrast to these strongly increased earnings levels at the portfolio companies, a relatively moderate share price appreciation of 9.3% was achieved last year. With this performance, the fund not only lagged behind the continued strong earnings growth of its portfolio companies, but significantly lagged the European small and mid-cap index EMIX, which increased by 23% in 2021.

According to Frans Jurgens, member of the Juno Selection Fund portfolio management team, the valuations of equities in the market as a whole are on the high side: “The liberal policies of the Central Banks have created an addiction to cheap money and that affects the market. Companies that you would not classify as quality companies are treated like gold; stuffed with cheap loans. These companies have soaring stock prices thanks to investors’ willingness to take a gamble.”

“We will stick to our selection criteria: (family-owned) businesses with a solid market share, high margins and return on capital, little debt and with a consistent annual earnings and turnover growth of 10% to 15%. Companies that provide products and services that are ‘need to have’ and not just ‘nice to have’. This brings pricing power, which means that increased costs can be passed on and margins do not suffer unnecessary pressure.”

At the top of the bandwidth

The gap between the fund’s performance in 2021 and that of the index is not pleasant for the manager to look back on. But in the end of the day, it is the firm belief at Juno that share prices will follow earnings development over time. With an expected earnings growth of more than 15% in 2021, the Juno companies are above the desired bandwidth that the fund uses for investment candidates. This consistent approach has paid off over the past 14 years, with the Juno Selection Fund delivering an average annual return of 12.9%, compared to 7.6% for the index.

“We know that usually we do well, relatively speaking, in markets that quietly move sideways or move lower. But if all market prices rocket, as they did in 2021, we often lag behind,” said co-founder Lennart Smits. “Ultimately, this is a temporary thing. If the share price does not move during a period, but the earnings increase, the company becomes cheaper. You cannot keep a spring pressed down further permanently. Ultimately, the pressure becomes too great and the price follows the steadily increasing earnings.”

The quarterly reports can be found here and the most recent fact sheet here.

About Juno Investment Partners

Since 2007, Juno Investment Partners has been investing in a highly concentrated portfolio of European listed companies with predictable and stable earnings growth, often family-owned businesses.

We focus on companies with a high return on invested capital, strong margins, and highly predictable (free) cash flows. These are typically companies with a strong competitive position and clear added value for their clients, enabling them to continue creating value over the long term.

Based on these characteristics, we select a limited number of companies that we want to understand thoroughly. The portfolio consists of approximately fifteen companies. These are analyzed intensively, visited regularly, and monitored over several years. The investment horizon is long, typically well over five years. Our analysts and portfolio managers also invest in the funds themselves.

Juno offers three products. The Juno Selection Fund focuses on small and medium-sized companies. The Juno Continuation Fund focuses on medium-sized companies. In addition, Juno offers individual asset management via managed accounts, using the same investment approach. The Juno Selection Fund was launched in 2008 and invests in European companies with an initial market capitalization between €250 million and €4 billion. The fund was closed to new investments for a long time and has been accessible to existing participants again since April 2023.

The Juno Continuation Fund was launched on February 1, 2020, and invests in medium-sized companies with a market capitalization between €4 and €20 billion. Here, too, the emphasis is on companies that often have family or management as co-shareholders.

Juno holds an AIFM license from the AFM.